Archive for November, 2008

2008 NL MVP: Pujols v. Howard

Thursday, November 20th, 2008

This comes from an email exchange with my friend JTT.  My email:

Here is another article and counter article by two really good
sportswriters, Thomas Boswell and Joe Posnanski.  Definitely read
these, Boswell is making points very similar to what you were making
earlier this year, JTT.  Thing is he's getting blasted by commenters
and other bloggers/writers. 

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/baseball-insider/2008/11/mvps_howard_k-rod_not_pujols_p.html

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/11/19/life-of-boswell/

JTT's email response:

That is pretty interesting.  Obviously, I disagree with the
specific judgment of Howard over Pujols (as indicated in my prior
e-mail), but I don't think it's crazy.  I strongly agree with Boswell
on this though: the VORP discrepancy between Howard and Pujols is just
so great that the obvious inference to draw here is that this is one of
those things VORP gets badly wrong.  That's not the end of the world;
it doesn't mean VORP is a bad stat.  Even good stats will get things
wrong, occasionally.  Here is one time when VORP really screws up. 
And, truth be told, everyone really knows it's misleading here.  Even
the people attacking Boswell so harshly here surely don't believe that
Pujols is 3 times more valuable than Ryan Howard,
which is what you would have to believe if you accepted their VORP
ratings.  If the Boswell-critics really do believe this, we need to
bring them into our fantasy league and EWB leagues, so I can exploit
the hell out of them.  I'll gladly trade them my 1 Pujols for their 3
Ryan Howards, and we'll just see who fares better.
 
One other point I would make in connection here is this.  Potentially, there are literally an infinite
number of baseball stats you could consider.  Take slugging percentage
for example.  To calulate it, you take ((singles x 1) + (doubles x 2) +
(triples x 3) + (HR x 4))/AB.  Offhand, it seems obvious why you would
select just these values — why a single should get 1 point, a double 2
points, and so on.  But in truth, I would bet my life that these aren't
the "real values" of these different sorts of hits.  That is, I would
bet my life that 1 HR isn't "equivalent in value" to 4 singles, or to 2
doubles, or to 1 triple + 1 single, etc.  Here is a quick argument for
the conclusion: Suppose you get to choose what your team's offensive
production will be today, which option do you prefer (a) 1 HR, no other
hits, or (b) 1 triple, 1 single (not necessarily consecutive, just over
the course of the game), and no other hits?  I guarantee you that (a)
on average will deliver your team more runs, because (a) guarantees at
least *one* run, the guy who hit the HR (in addition, there may or may
not be runners on base).  In contrast, (b) doesn't guarantee you at
least one run.  If the triple takes place in the 2nd inning and the
single in the 7th, it doesn't really help you at all.  Obviously, there
are possible scenarios where (b) leads to more runs: the triple
happened right after you got two walks, and the single happened when
there was a runner on 2nd thanks to an error, etc.  Still, I guarantee
that (a) will have the higher expected run-value than (b).
 
So then, why not revise SLUG?  Here's a new way we could calculate
it: ((singles x 1) + (doubles x 2) + (triples x 3) + (HR x 4.2))/AB. 
Call this SLUG* (slug-prime).  The way it differs from original SLUG is
that SLUG* assigns a value of 4.2 to a home run, instead of just 4. 
This is to reflect our latest conclusion, that a HR is really worth
more than 1 triple + 1 single.  (According to SLUG*, a HR is worth 4.2,
while a triple + single is worth 4.)  Well, from that first step, you
can see how (literally, infinitiely) many different revisions might
go.  Why not assign a single the value of .9, or .91, or .911, or
.9111, etc., infinitely.  I say let a thousand flowers bloom, and use
each statistic so-generated: so you have SLUG, SLUG*, SLUG**, SLUG***,
and so on, for infitenly many different stats.  And that's just
limiting our attention to variations on slugging percentage — here
alone we get infinitely many different statistical measures.
 
Depending on which stat you use, you're bound to get different
valuations of players.  So for instance, Pedroia has a worse SLUG than
Youkilis.  But, suppose that if you use SLUG*****, Pedroia is better
than Youkilis.  So then, the question is, which statistic is a better
measure of true value, SLUG or SLUG*****?  If it's SLUG, then Youkilis
should get the MVP; if it's SLUG*****, Pedroia should get the vote. 
But how do you find out which statistic is better?
 
Here's the upshot.  The conflict isn't really between "stats" and
"commonsense" .  If you want me to back up my commonsense verdicts,
with "stats," I can do that all day.  Playing the role of Boswell,
Pujols is better than Howard at VORP, but Howard is better than Pujols
at VORP x RBI.  (VORP x RBI isn't a pre-existing stat, I just made it
up: it's VORP multiplied by RBI total.)  So question, why should we
care about VORP more than VORP x RBI?  Why not vote on the basis of
VORP x RBI and thus give the award to Howard over Pujols?  Hey, that
way, we can claim to be honoring both Sabermetrics (by including VORP) and traditional stats (by including RBIs).  Everyone should be happy.
 
I don't really buy this argument, but my point is this.  There's
no way to figure out which stat is bettern between SLUG vs. SLUG****,
between VORP vs. VORP x RBI, than by appealing to commonsense.  There's
no way to assess it by appealing to more stats.  For, even if you do
show me some stat that indicates VORP is better, I'll just invent my
own stat that says VORP x RBI is better.  (And again, Sabermetrics
people ultimately ground their claims in commonsense anyway, e.g., when
they discredit RBIs.  They argue that RBIs depend on too many
extraneous factors.  Let me stipulate that they're right about this. 
Even so, it's a commonsense appeal, not statistics.)

Reliving Baseball Cards, Thank You Internet!

Wednesday, November 19th, 2008

The 1980's were a glorious time to be collecting baseball cards as a kid.  The hobby was really hitting a peak, magazines such as Beckett's started publishing values to the cards, and everybody I knew collected cards.  My love for baseball carries on to this day but somewhere along the line, probably around age 12, my love for collecting cards faded.

However, like with other childhood nostalgia there comes a point when sometimes you yearn to re-experience it.  In my case, one day while stumbling through the web a happened upon a weblog that was sifting through the 1988 Topps Set.  It's great!  Seeing all the cards with a new, fresh perspective.  Examining the photography, checking out the stats again, correcting misperceptions of my youth (a lot of these players were much better or much worse than I remembered as a kid).

I recommend you check out the site here, even if you never collected cards you'll enjoy it if you're a baseball fan.  There is a relevant background and stats.  That same guy also is doing a 1978 Topps Set here and I just finished with this post and was great.

I believe there are several baseball card sites on the internet, I plan to check as many as I can out.  It is very relaxing and escapist to pore over these childhood relics.

Nebraska Electoral College: Future?

Monday, November 10th, 2008

This comes from my friend, JTT, about the future of the Nebraska Electoral System.  If you are not familiar, Nebraska like Maine allocates their Electoral College Votes by Congressional District, not winner take all.  JTT's comments:

"I see that fresh off Obama getting the Omaha electoral college
vote, the Nebraska State Republican Party is trying to change the state
constitution so that in future years, Nebraska will allocate their
electoral votes the way that everybody else (besides Maine) does: all
or nothing.

 
Setting aside the Republican/Democrat political angle, this seems
stupid to me.  First, by virtue of having the split system, Nebraska is
able to get attention from national candidates in a way that it never
would under an all-or-nothing system: you can be sure that Obama
wouldn't have bothered pouring resources into Omaha on that scenario,
and that Palin never would have visited, etc.  And it's not just a
matter of empty gestures: if politicians have to compete for Omaha,
they're bound to make promises relevant to Omahans.
 
Second, because the only district that really figures to swing is
Omaha, it's not like Republicans give up anything of worth under the
present system.  There's only one scenario where the present system
could screw Republicans: the nation-wide electoral college vote is
separated by just 1, and Omaha makes all the difference.  It is a long, long, long
shot that this will ever happen.  In part, because the nation-wide
electoral vote has never been that close; and in part, because on any
likely scenario where it is that close, it's very doubtful Omaha would
go Democratic.  If Omaha ever does go Democratic again (at least for
the foreseeable future), it will probably be in a landslide year (like
2008) where the Democratic candidate doesn't need that 1 vote anyway. 
Almost surely will not happen in a true 50/50 year.
 
Things are different in a big state like, say, California or
Texas.  If California opted to break up their votes like Nebraska
currently does, the end result would be that Republicans could count on
getting many more electoral votes from the state than they do right now
(where they get shut out 55-0).  That would have serious national
ramifications, and it would make the path to the White House much more
difficult for Democrats.  For that reason, the California Democratic
party would be smart to fight a Nebraska-system.  But, precisely
because Nebraska is so small, and you're only talking about a single
electoral vote which is at stake, Nebraska is wholly different.
 
For the sake of political relevance, then, I hope Nebraska keeps their current system."

Needless to say I agree with my friend 100%.

Election Day: Call A Spade A Spade

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Nothing is more annoying than intellectual dishonesty hidden under the guise of fairness and balance in journalism.  I cannot watch MSNBC's election coverage anymore, it's sickening me because they refuse to acknowledge what is obvious to most of the world; that Barack Obama will not only win today but win big.  Yeah that's right I'm going out on a big limb here, calling it before the votes have been cast (well that's not even true considering early voting has accounted for a third of the total in some states).

I generally like MSNBC but lately Mika Brezinski and Joe Scarborough are getting out of hand.  Every 2 minutes they make a qualifying statement along the lines of " you know this is far from over, McCain still has an electoral college path…"  this is often in response to some other commentator's innocuous praise of Obama or his campaign.  Two things Brezinski and Scarborough need to understand:

1)  Their credibility rests upon being able to reflect some sort of reality, not on their ability to appease both political parties.  Here is the reality; both anecdotally and mathematically it appears by all rational viewers to be an Obama blow out or at the very minimum an electoral victory.  This is not opinion or spin this is reality.  Check any polling you want.  A McCain possibility is possible, yes we can all acknowledge that, however possible and the degree of probability are far different.  MSNBC's coverage is implying that this a McCain victory is more along the lines of 45% than the more realistic 3% ( see www.fivethirtyeight.com).  Yes, it is possible McCain will pull out the slim chance or that the polls and math is all wrong but no credible evidence suggests that!  It's also why their horrible analogy's to elections past and sporting events are wrong, those were wholly different situations. 

2)  There is no reason to try to be balanced when doing so is dishonest.  Trying to pander to the Conservative Republicans by not calling this race what it is is ludicrous.  First, it accomplishes nothing, no matter what the media does it will always be labeled "liberal."  This is a rallying cry for the Conservatives, and they have made it their mantra for years and no election coverage is ever going to change it.  Secondly, an objective commentator is supposed to be, OBJECTIVE, shocking isn't it.  Objectivity does not mean compromising two points of view, it means interpreting reality as clearly as one can.  It's like being a football fan and your team is down big in the 4th Quarter, you can want them to come back, you can envision all these scenarios, you can say that your team should have been closer, you can say the other team is dirty, or that the refs were unfair, but the objectively you have to acknowledge the mathematical probability of your plight.

The media needs to step up.  They've been battered by the right wing for so long with the claims of media bias that they cower to even call a spade a spade.  Through constant claims of liberal bias the right wing is able to spread their dirty propaganda and not have it contested.  So on this historic day, when a new, uplifting candidate finally prevails over the Republican slime, please for one day can't the media just call a spade a spade and acknowledge that Obama will be the next President of the United States.