Door To Hell

A contribution by JTT:

This article states that the unconscious mind is a better decision maker than it's been given credit for.  The discussion of rational conscious decision making versus unconscious decision making (for these purposes I'll refer to as intuition) has always intrigued me.  Lately it's implications in the baseball world has really drawn my attention.

Within the last 8 or so years, with the advent of the book Moneyball, the area of baseball statistics called Sabermetrics has really grown in popularity and legitimacy.  Sabermetrics aren't new, in fact the Godfather of them, Bill James, has been publishing for 20+ years.  With the rise in legitimacy, they are now being used by many as the foundation for determining awards, salary, playing time, promotions/demotions, signings, etc.  It's hard not to read a baseball article without some mention of OBP or VORP.  The Sabermetrics proponents will claim that these statistics that are surpassing the older statistics, such as RBI's, Wins and Batting Average, are in fact much more accurate and more of a reflection of a player's true value.  The use of the older statistics has fooled us, and moreso that decisions not based on the results of sabermetrics (ie intuition) are not optimal.  For example, a manager's decision to pinch hit or not and with whom is almost always second guessed using a metric claimed by Sabermetricians to be rational measurement.  I have two main points:

1)  First, when comparing Sabermetric stats vs. traditional stats the sabermetric stats do bring a great insights that traditional statistics failed to do.  In general, however the proponents of the Sabermetric stats fail to admit that stats, in general, have to based on a certain premise that can't be statistically proven, so it's a reduction to eventually making an intuitive claim.  See this post for more info.

2)  When making a decision in baseball there are a multitude of factors and variables that statistics can only measure in the broadest sense.  For example, it's the 8th inning the Yankees are down by 1 with 2 outs, runner on 2nd.  They have A-Rod on the bench and Melky Cabrera to pinch hit.  It's sprinkling slightly, the pitcher is lefty, A-Rod is slightly hung over, Cabrera is 2-20 in his last 20 AB's, but 12-30 in his last 30 AB's, and I could go on and and on adding variable after variable.  The statistics can tell you which batter hits better average, obp, slugging, and it can probably even reduce it to vs. lefty/righty, home/away etc.  However, at a certain point there is not a stat that can take in every single factor of this situation and give you a best probability.  That is when the manager uses his intuition to make a decision.  Often this is mocked by "rational thinkers", however those people must consider the fact that the unconscious mind is a better aggregator and decision maker on certain subjects with lots of random info.  Sometimes it's better to trust your gut.  The assumption I am making, though, is that the person making the decision is well experienced and has a base of conscious and sub conscious information to draw from.  For example, Joe Torre's gut about baseball decisions should be relied on more than say Bill Clinton's.  Torre has a lifetime of baseball experience.

I am not laying claim that statistics and sabermetrics should be thrown to the side in favor of intuition.  I'm just making the claim that some decisions aren't best served by using flawed data such as sabermetrics, and in lieu of better information one should use their intuition if they have the experience to draw from.

Another insightful thought by JTT:

This comes from an email exchange with my friend JTT.  My email:

Here is another article and counter article by two really good
sportswriters, Thomas Boswell and Joe Posnanski.  Definitely read
these, Boswell is making points very similar to what you were making
earlier this year, JTT.  Thing is he's getting blasted by commenters
and other bloggers/writers. 

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/baseball-insider/2008/11/mvps_howard_k-rod_not_pujols_p.html

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/11/19/life-of-boswell/

JTT's email response:

The 1980's were a glorious time to be collecting baseball cards as a kid.  The hobby was really hitting a peak, magazines such as Beckett's started publishing values to the cards, and everybody I knew collected cards.  My love for baseball carries on to this day but somewhere along the line, probably around age 12, my love for collecting cards faded.

However, like with other childhood nostalgia there comes a point when sometimes you yearn to re-experience it.  In my case, one day while stumbling through the web a happened upon a weblog that was sifting through the 1988 Topps Set.  It's great!  Seeing all the cards with a new, fresh perspective.  Examining the photography, checking out the stats again, correcting misperceptions of my youth (a lot of these players were much better or much worse than I remembered as a kid).

I recommend you check out the site here, even if you never collected cards you'll enjoy it if you're a baseball fan.  There is a relevant background and stats.  That same guy also is doing a 1978 Topps Set here and I just finished with this post and was great.

I believe there are several baseball card sites on the internet, I plan to check as many as I can out.  It is very relaxing and escapist to pore over these childhood relics.

Finally it's going to come out.  The baseball player's union is going to take it to MLB Owners for colluding against Barry Bonds.

Wasn't it obvious they colluded to keep Bonds out? Freaking Infuriating.  I
hope MLB gets nailed to the wall for this.  This really pissed me off
this season, Bonds should have gotten a fair chance to play.  As a fan
I wanted to see him play.  You know he's clean for sure, so let's see
what he can do clean and in his early 40's.

I have no vehemence
to Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens or anyone else they slimed.  Well, maybe
Palmeiro was a little sleazy but I feel bad for people like Clemens and
McGwire.  I wanted to see Bonds play.  If Florida was going to pull the
trigger on the Manny Ramirez trade and decided not to because of the
cost, WTF?  Why not pick up Barry Bonds, pay him league minimum (which
he was going to donate to charity anyway)?  It's a no lose, if he sucks
drop him – no cost, if he is disruptive, drop him – no cost, can't play
defense, drop him – no cost.  Tampa Bay, a DH AL team, same thing when
Longoria went down.  No Crawford and no Longoria, in a pennant race,
why not?

Biggest sham in the world, do they think everyone is stupid? 

Here's the deal and the parallel with Wall St.  The players in baseball most likely used some enhancing drugs, but the rules allowed it.  In fact there were no rules.

1)  In an extremely competitive atmosphere players used performance enhancers to get ahead.  Why?  Because others were doing it and their livelihoods depended on it.
1a)  In an extremely competitive atmosphere banks leveraged gaboodles of money to make risky investments.  Why?  Because others were doing it and making even more gaboodles of money.  If not them it was going to be their competitor, livelihoods depended on it.

2)  The result of an increase in performance enhancing drugs in the league caused more offense and as a result more attendance and as a result more money for the owners.  Times were good, players were chasing records and attendances were finally coming back from the dismal 1994 strike season.
2a)  The result of the increased investing and leverage for the banks allowed for everyone to be happy, the economy grew, the market went up and the corporations made lots of money.  The economy was coming back strong after the dismal recession after 9/11.

3)  This was the direct result of the MLB rulers, namely Bud Selig, turning a blind eye to the performance enhancers.  There were no rules or testing in MLB for performance enhancing drugs.  Why bother, everyone is doing well.
3a)  The increased investments made by banks were a direct result of the Fed giving out money.  Interest rates were so low, you were stupid not to use it.  The government and Fed had no reason to step in, instead turn a blind eye and delude yourself.  Everyone is doing well.

4)  Finally alarm bells start to go off.  Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco, Balco.
4a)  Alarm bells go off.  Defaults, foreclosures, mortgage companies failing.

5)  Public turns on players using steriods, attacking them from moral stances.
5a)  Public turns on Wall St.  Calling them greedy and immoral.

6)  MLB cleans up its system and persecutes the stars of its game, whom they ALLOWED to use performance enhancing drugs.
6a)  Treasury attempts to clean up its system and will try to persecute the banks and bankers it ALLOWED to leverage so high and make risky investments.

Are the players and bankers guilty?  Yes, but they only did what the system allowed them to do.  The people that deserve the wrath in both situations are the rule makers of the games, not the players of the games. 

If Sarah Palin were the manager of the Red Sox right now in their attempt to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the ALCS agains Tampa Bay.  A little jest during playoff and election time.

On Boston being the more American team:
"Look at their name, Hussein Obama the DEVIL Rays!  You betcha, promoting the work of the Devil, what kind of American does that?  They don't use that Hussein Devil anymore, but they can't deceive us!"

On being down 3-1 to Tampa Bay in the ALCS:
"Look were not going to quit now.  We're doing this for every Joe Six Pack in America Boston, to give him a voice amongst the overwhelming Liberal Yankee Press.  We will fight and play hardball slander against our opponents."

On opposing manager Joe Maddon:
"Do you know who Barack Obama Joe Maddon is?  Did you know he associates with former terrorists Yankees, like Bill Ayers Joe Torre?

On her job as manager of the Red Sox:
"As for that VP manager talk all the time, I'll tell you, I still can't answer
that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the
VP manager does every day?"

On her dedication to the Red Sox winning the World Series:
"Pray for our military men and women Red Sox who are striving to do what is
right defeat the Rays. Also, for this country Boston, that our leaders Epstein, our national leaders John Henry,
are sending soldiers players out on a task that is from God. That's what we
have to make sure that we're praying for, that there is a plan and that
that plan is God's plan."

EDIT (10/17/08):  After seeing last night's game, Boston coming back from a 7-0 deficit with 7 outs to go, it may just be God's plan.  Sorry.

I wanted to write about Edgar Martinez and his worthiness for the Hall of Fame, believing that he would not be highly represented.  Well I was wrong, Martinez has a nice grassroots campaign and many are coming to the realization that he was an extremely good player.  Here are two links that fully explore his merit:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/356292_edgar25.html
http://www.abarim.com/edgar.htm

Since those links do a great job of explaining why he should get in, I want to explore a couple of reasons why he may not or why it may take a while.

1. Edgar Martinez's career spanned from 1987 to 2004.  During the majority of this time it was traditional stats that were paid attention to, BA/HR/RBI.  Now Martinez still put up respectable lines in the traditional stat line, however, his real strength was in his Sabermetric stat lines, BA/OBP/SLG/OPS.  Sabermetrics are still a recently new phenomenon, or at least newly recognized.  As Martinez was retiring people began recognizing value in the stats that he excelled at.  Had his career taken place in present day, we would have heard about the virtues of Edgar Martinez more often, making him more of a mainstream star.
2. Obviously playing in Seattle is more of a hindrance for Martinez than a help.  First, If Martinez had played in any of MLB's large market, Northeast US teams he would be an auto Hall of Famer.  Much of our opinion, despite the abundance of statistics is based on perception.  Martinez lacks a great story.  Believe me, the press of NY or Boston would have created a story for Edgar Martinez which they would have burned into our sub conscious, our opinion of Martinez would be quite different.  Fair or not, this is an obstacle Martinez will have to overcome.
3. His position of DH.  This topic is covered well in the links above.  However, this contributes to Martinez being an under the radar player.  There is no magical catches or defensive plays that voters can harken back to in order to help justify a vote.  By all standards, Martinez is a great player but pretty boring.

If given a vote for the Hall of Fame, which should happen, I would vote YES for Edgar Martinez.  I've always liked him and thought he was under recognized.  After seeing his stats in comparison with other Hall of Famers, I feel vindicated.  Damn it, I was right all those years, Martinez was better than just good, he was legitmately one of the game's best.