Door To Hell

This article states that the unconscious mind is a better decision maker than it's been given credit for.  The discussion of rational conscious decision making versus unconscious decision making (for these purposes I'll refer to as intuition) has always intrigued me.  Lately it's implications in the baseball world has really drawn my attention.

Within the last 8 or so years, with the advent of the book Moneyball, the area of baseball statistics called Sabermetrics has really grown in popularity and legitimacy.  Sabermetrics aren't new, in fact the Godfather of them, Bill James, has been publishing for 20+ years.  With the rise in legitimacy, they are now being used by many as the foundation for determining awards, salary, playing time, promotions/demotions, signings, etc.  It's hard not to read a baseball article without some mention of OBP or VORP.  The Sabermetrics proponents will claim that these statistics that are surpassing the older statistics, such as RBI's, Wins and Batting Average, are in fact much more accurate and more of a reflection of a player's true value.  The use of the older statistics has fooled us, and moreso that decisions not based on the results of sabermetrics (ie intuition) are not optimal.  For example, a manager's decision to pinch hit or not and with whom is almost always second guessed using a metric claimed by Sabermetricians to be rational measurement.  I have two main points:

1)  First, when comparing Sabermetric stats vs. traditional stats the sabermetric stats do bring a great insights that traditional statistics failed to do.  In general, however the proponents of the Sabermetric stats fail to admit that stats, in general, have to based on a certain premise that can't be statistically proven, so it's a reduction to eventually making an intuitive claim.  See this post for more info.

2)  When making a decision in baseball there are a multitude of factors and variables that statistics can only measure in the broadest sense.  For example, it's the 8th inning the Yankees are down by 1 with 2 outs, runner on 2nd.  They have A-Rod on the bench and Melky Cabrera to pinch hit.  It's sprinkling slightly, the pitcher is lefty, A-Rod is slightly hung over, Cabrera is 2-20 in his last 20 AB's, but 12-30 in his last 30 AB's, and I could go on and and on adding variable after variable.  The statistics can tell you which batter hits better average, obp, slugging, and it can probably even reduce it to vs. lefty/righty, home/away etc.  However, at a certain point there is not a stat that can take in every single factor of this situation and give you a best probability.  That is when the manager uses his intuition to make a decision.  Often this is mocked by "rational thinkers", however those people must consider the fact that the unconscious mind is a better aggregator and decision maker on certain subjects with lots of random info.  Sometimes it's better to trust your gut.  The assumption I am making, though, is that the person making the decision is well experienced and has a base of conscious and sub conscious information to draw from.  For example, Joe Torre's gut about baseball decisions should be relied on more than say Bill Clinton's.  Torre has a lifetime of baseball experience.

I am not laying claim that statistics and sabermetrics should be thrown to the side in favor of intuition.  I'm just making the claim that some decisions aren't best served by using flawed data such as sabermetrics, and in lieu of better information one should use their intuition if they have the experience to draw from.

See Video.

This place in Uzbekistan is called by locals “The Door to Hell”.
It is situated near the small town of Darvaz. The story of this place
lasts already for 35 years. Once the geologists were drilling for gas..
Then suddenly during the drilling they have found an underground
cavern, it was so big that all the drilling site with all the equipment
and camps got deep deep under the ground. None dared to go down there
because the cavern was filled with gas. So they ignited it so that no
poisonous gas could come out of the hole, and since then, it’s burning,
already for 35 years without any pause. Nobody knows how many tons of
excellent gas has been burned for all those years but it just seems to
be infinite there.

Were in a financial crisis or so I've read.  I've also been led to
believe that this is, in large part, due to the breakdown of the US housing
market.  I've actually just been reading a report, "The Panic of
2007" by Gary Gorton which goes into great detail regarding the subprime
market and the housing crisis.

In essence these banks and investment banks were "banking" that
housing prices would continue their ascent and keep rising.  All their
risk safeguards were bet on this fact.  Laid out so simply it seems so
foolish, however, many of consumers/citizens were under the same spell.  I
explicitly remember the conversations I had with people who urged me to buy a
house, stating that I was foolish to keep renting.  Maybe they were right
but their reasoning was flawed, they used the same assumptions that the banks
did, believing that housing prices would continue to move higher with time and
considering their house an investment rather than shelter.  Obviously it is
not rational to believe that certain things are going to continue in
perpetuity, I argued this about house prices, yet people would look at me like
a rambling fool.

My point is not to say I was right, or to delve into the causes of the
financial upheaval, but rather to question how we tend to believe, so easily,
that things will just continue as they have.  Or the famous "this
time is different" statement.  I suppose it is a coping mechanism to
get us through our lives, I mean if we really had to concern ourselves with
whether the sun will come out tomorrow it could be devastating.  However,
here are some assumptions that I think many people make without really
questioning them:

1)  The US will remain the strongest nation state for as long as we
know it (our lifetime). -  Look, it's very possible that our hegemony
will not remain static.  It's inevitable that the empire we have built
will fall from power.  I think most people will concede that point when
addressed in a rational manner.  However, nobody *really* assumes that
they will ever see it in their time.  Sure, people speculate about it, but
it's mostly the fodder for science fiction and conspiracy theories.

2)  Along the same lines, that the US will always be among the
richest nations. -  Once again, rationally people might be able to
admit that along with a loss of power, a loss of wealth should be a
given.  It is a very real possibility that in the days of globalization,
we will never be as wealthy of a nation as we were in the mid to late 20th
century.  We are truly competing in a global marketplace for finite
resources, inevitably the average American will be much worse off than in the
past without some kind of radical change to the way we currently govern. 
This is once again ignored, assumed that it is not applicable to someone now.

My point is not to question of possible surprising event.  These are
examples of events that their possibility is almost a foregone conclusion it's
just a matter of when.  It's my assertion that most people live under the
"not anytime soon" thought process, therefore not even acknowledging
the possibilities and consequences.  Pretty soon when you're most secure
in that mode of thinking, mostly because everyone else is thinking that way,
BAMMM!  You get hit by the Mack Truck of "Oh Shit."

See this article.

Israel's first astronaut, who unfortunately died in the Columbia space shuttle accident of 2003, left a diary.  The diary miraculously survived the disintegration and was somehow found recently in

PALESTINE, Texas.

It's at times like this that I truly believe there is a higher power up there fucking with us.

On the local sports talk radio this topic was brought up recently.  Then it came up in conversation.  So without due my official rant on pussy drinks.

As a former bartender who has mixed drinks for many a pussy boys, here is my list of official "Not to be Ordered by a Straight Guy Drinks."

1) Anything garnished with a cherry. One exception, The Manhattan.
Other than that if I am reaching into my 6 month old tray of cherries
to garnish your Amaretto Sour, you have masculinity problems.

2) The Cosmopolitan. This tells me that your up to date on the
latest "Sex in the City" reruns on TBS and that your proud to be "in
the know and chic." Sorry but this was only cool about 8 years ago and
only if you are a bangin hot girl, about 6 years ago. Now it's the
favored drink of fatty girls and 40 year old cougars.

3) Blueberry Vodka, or for that matter any flavored vodka. I know, it's vodka right, fuckin'
drink of hard core KGB Russians. But I just can't imagine Vladimir ever
sipping his precious peach or rasberry flavored vodka. If your gonna
order from my bar and want respect for your manliness, then order some
some Stoli or Schmirnoff. I'm not impressed by your attempts to be a
connossieur when you take 3 minutes to contemplate if my stock of
Belvedere or Ketel might be better for you tonight. Order and drink it
like a man.

4) Lemon drop shots. See #3. Six guys ordering Lemon Drop Shots
tells me the engineering floor of Abel Hall just finished their
semester finals. Caveat: Drunk ass girls wanting to get laid seem to
order these a lot, as it's the only thing that crosses their dick laden
mind. So if your with one of those, you get a pass.

5) Glass of Pinot Grigio or Sauvignon Blanc. C'mon need I say more.
I can handle a man drinking white whine, I can handle the wine with a
good dinner. But really? When you come to the bar and ask to drink a
glass of Pinot Grigio it's that you would rather have just ordered a
ginger ale. You don't really want to drink, do you? Some how you feel
compelled to impress the crowd you are with and drink some alcohol. One
day you read in your Conde Nast that Sauvignon Blanc was some good shit
and your going to make sure your racquetball partner, Chet and his wife
Buffy, know you have good taste. Just order the ginger ale, trust me
it's ok.

6) If your drink is blue, your a pussy.

7) I will throw one beer in for good measure. This is tough because beer drinkers are usually the anti-thesis of pussies.
I really know that the guy that orders the Bud Light when his friends
are ordering Dirty Martinis should have been born in Nebraska. But if
push came to shove and I had to name a pussy
beer ordered in bars I would say any lime or salt flavored beer. This
is a rather new phenomenon but when you ask me if we stock the new Bud
Light Lime, I know you're a poser. Fuck no we don't have it because NOBODY DRINKS THE SHIT! But of course that's not what I say as a bartender, instead I whore for the dollar and say "no sorry but I can put a fuckin' stale ass lime in your Bud Light with a born on date of 2006."